In brief
As Americans gear up for the presidential election on November 5, 2024, the responses from their northern and southern neighbors reflect a mix of apprehension and anticipation regarding potential shifts in trade policies and diplomatic relations.
In Fort Erie, Ontario, a town that borders New York state, political discussions remain subdued, but tensions surface as the election nears. Local residents, like 85-year-old Ernie, prefer to avoid discussing politics, whereas at the Southsides Patio Bar & Grill, U.S.-born bartender Lauren finds herself mediating heated debates fueled by drinks. In contrast, individuals like Sofia Ana in Juarez, Mexico, who commutes daily to El Paso for better job opportunities, emphasize the urgency of cordial relations between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.With over 155 million Americans expected to cast their votes, the election outcome will impact the economic landscape significantly for Canada and Mexico, both of which are heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. In 2022, trade between the U.S. and Mexico reached $807 billion, while trade with Canada followed closely at $782 billion. Concerns are mounting about former President Donald Trump's proposal to impose new tariffs, which could further complicate trade relations. Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to uphold more open trade policies, although her past rejection of the USMCA raises questions about her approach.Juarez shop owner Adrian Ramos reflects on how the election results will have a direct effect on his business. Farmers in Ontario, like Dave Braden, fear that a possible Trump presidency may introduce tariffs detrimental to Canadian agriculture and commerce. Meanwhile, the Canadian government is actively engaging in discussions about the potential for exemptions from tariffs if Trump is victorious.Some Canadians remain hopeful about Trump's economic impact, highlighting the polarized opinions on his leadership. As the U.S. continues to strengthen ties with its neighbors, Canadian Minister Francois Champagne emphasizes the importance of maintaining solid diplomatic relations regardless of election results. Experts highlight key issues such as migration, security, and trade as immediate priorities that will need addressing post-election.The future of U.S.-Mexico-Canada relations hangs on the balance of the election, as both Republicans and Democrats are expected to converge on stopping Chinese investments in Mexico—a pressing concern for both political parties. As both countries wait with bated breath, they collectively acknowledge that the outcome will shape the future of their intertwined economies and partnerships.
